INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: Islam Makhachev of Russia is seen on stage during the UFC 311 … [+]
Saturday’s UFC 311 fight card features two title fights at the top of the marquee. In the main event matchup, UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev looks to make a record-setting defense of his title. His opponent on Intuit Dome in California is late replacement Renato Moicano, who stepped in on weigh-in day for the injured Arman Tsarukyan. In the co-main event, bantamweight titleholder Merab Dvalishvili looks to defend his belt against Umar Nurmagomedov. We look at the betting odds, line movement, prediction, picks and prop bets for the UFC 311 PPV card.
The UFC 311 PPV fight card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on ESPN+.
Also on the UFC 311 main card is a light heavyweight matchup between two former UFC champions, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill.
UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Odds and Predictions – Islam Makhachev Vs. Renato Moicano
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: Islam Makhachev of Russia is seen on stage during the UFC 311 … [+]
The initial main event for UFC 311, Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 fell through on weigh-in day because of an injury to Tsarukyan. Moicano, who was booked against Beneil Dariush on the card, stepped in on short notice to fight Makhachev for the title.
Makhachev (26-1) has compiled a 15-1 record with the UFC, racking up 10 finishes (seven submissions, three knockouts) and five decisions. Makhachev captured the vacant UFC lightweight title in October 2022 with a submission win over former UFC 155-pound titleholder Charles Oliveira.
Makhachev has defended his crown three times since defeating Oliveira. His first two title defenses were a decision win and knockout of then-UFC featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski. In his most recent outing, Makhachev submitted former UFC interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 302.
Renato Moicano (19-5-1) is riding the first four-fight winning streak of his UFC career. The 35-year-old opened his run with the promotion at 3-0 record between 2014 and 2017. Since then, Moicano has been up and down. He followed that by going 5-5 over his next 10 outings before beginning his current unbeaten streak in 2022.
Moicano is 6-1 dating back to June 2021. His only loss during that time was a March 2022 unanimous decision setback to former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos in a 160-pound catchweight battle.
The betting odds for the fight favor Makhachev (-1100) over Moicano (+700).
The betting pick is for Makhachev to win via stoppage.
UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Odds and Predictions – Merab Dvalishvili Vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: (L-R) Opponents Umar Nurmagomedov of Russia and Merab … [+]
Merab Dvalishvili (18-4), a long-time training partner of former UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling stepped into the spotlight of the promotion’s 135-pound division in September 2014 when he scored a unanimous decision win over then-champion Sean O’Malley in the main event of UFC 306.
The 33-year-old Dvalishvili joined the UFC in 2017 as much-hyped prospect. At the time, Dvalishvili was 7-2 and had won and defended the Ring of Combat bantamweight crown.
Dvalishvili did not have a smooth start to his UFC run, losing his first two fights. Falling to Frankie Saenz by decision, and the second, to Ricky Simon, via submission. In September 2018, things clicked in place for the Serra-Longo Fight Team product, and he has not lost since.
Heading into UFC 306, Dvalishvili was on a 10-fight winning streak. Prior to his matchup against O’Malley, Dvalishvili had defeated Marlon Moraes, Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo. The win over O’Malley stretched his winning streak to 11 straight. Even with one of those victories coming at a catchweight of 140 pounds, Dvalishvili holds the record for longest winning streak in the division at 10, beating Sterling’s mark of nine wins in a row.
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0) is the brother of Bellator lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov and the cousin of former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. He is currently the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC bantamweight rankings.
The 28-year-old joined the UFC in January 2021 with a submission win over Sergey Morozov. Since that win, he has picked up another five victories in the UFC most recently beating former interim UFC title challenger Cory Sandhagen in a five-round main event scrap in August.
The win over Sandhagen answered any questions about Nurmagomedov’s upside. Before the fight there was some criticism that Nurmagomedov had not defeated anyone of note. However, his dominant win over the then No. 2 ranked bantamweight put that talk to rest.
Nurmagomedov looked the part of a future champion against Sandhagen. He went five rounds, never lost his cool, stayed within himself, and stuck to a strong game plan.
The opening odds for the UFC 311 co-main event saw Nurmagomedov open as the -300 favorite over the +240 Dvalishvili. Those odds have shifted slightly. Today, the challenger is listed at -275 and the champ comes in at +200.
Eighty-three percent of the bets have been placed on Dvalishvili, while 85 percent of the handle is on the champ.
The betting pick is for Nurmagomedov to take the title via decision.
UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Odds and Predictions – Jiri Prochazka Vs. Jamahal Hill
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: (L-R) Opponents Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic and Jamahal … [+]
Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) entered the UFC in 2020 with a 26-3-1 record. At the time, he was coming off a knockout win over former UFC fighter C.B. Dollaway, which earned him the Rizin light heavyweight title.
Prochazka was riding a 10-fight winning streak ahead of his UFC debut, with nine knockout wins.
The former Rizin champ announced himself to UFC fans with a second-round knockout of former UFC light heavyweight title challenger Volkan Oezdemir at UFC 251. The UFC awarded Prochazka a “Performance of the Night” bonus for that knockout. He followed that stoppage with another knockout, decking another ex-UFC title challenger, Dominick Reyes, in the second round of their UFC on ESPN main event matchup.
The UFC, sensing it had something special in Prochazka, then booked him for a title shot. That fight came in June 2022 against reigning champ Glover Teixeira. That fight was a spirited affair, but Prochazka once again scored a stoppage victory when he picked up his first submission in more than nine years, winning the scrap in the fifth round via rear-naked choke.
Prochazka’s title reign was short-lived. A nasty shoulder injury forced him to withdraw from a scheduled rematch against Teixeira, and he vacated the title at that time.
Prochazka made his return to the UFC Octagon in November 2023 against former UFC middleweight champ Alex Pereira. Their UFC 295 headlining bout was for the vacant light heavyweight crown. Pereira claimed the belt with a second-round knockout win, handing Prochazka his first loss since ex-Strikeforce light heavyweight kingpin Muhammed Lawal decked him in late 2015.
Prochazka bounced back from that defeat with a “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockout of Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300.
That win earned Prochazka another shot at Pereira and his title. That bout headlined UFC 303 in June 2024. Pereira retained his belt with a second-round knockout win.
The 32-year-old Prochazka has 25 career knockout wins, three submission victories and, one decision nod. His losses have come by way of knockout (four), and submission (one). Prochazka is currently the No. 2 ranked fighter in the official UFC light heavyweight rankings.
Jamahal Hill (12-2-0-1) had a 5-0 record when he appeared on a Dana White Contender Series card in July 2019. He won that fight against Alexander Poppeck by TKO in the third round. The victory earned him a UFC contract.
Hill made his official UFC debut in January 2020, winning a decision over Darko Stosic on the main card of an ESPN+ event at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. He then faced Klidson Abreu in May 2020. He initially won that bout by first-round TKO, but the result was later overturned to a no-contest because Hill tested positive for marijuana
He followed that fight with a December 2020 TKO over former interim light heavyweight title challenger Ovince Saint Preux.
Hill’s unbeaten streak ended in his next trip to the Octagon, when Paul Craig ended their June 2021 fight in under two minutes by TKO.
Hill bounced back from that loss by rattling off three straight “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockouts. That run earned him a shot at then-champion Glover Teixeira. Hill put on a striking clinic in that fight, battering Teixeira over five rounds to earn a one-sided decision win and the UFC 205-pound crown. That fight headlined UFC 283 in January 2023.
Misfortune ended Hill’s title reign. In July 2023, he suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during a UFC fighter basketball game. He relinquished the title and underwent surgery to repair the injury.
Hill returned at UFC 300 in a matchup against UFC light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira. Pereira ended that fight via knockout at the 3:14 mark of the first round. Hill has not competed since that April 2024 setback.
Hill, the No. 3 ranked UFC light heavyweight, has seven wins by knockout and five decision victories. Both his losses have come via knockout.
The opening odds for this light heavyweight contest saw Prochazka open as a -120 betting favorite over the +100 Hill. Those odds have flipped. Today, Hill is the -140 favorite over the +115 Prochazka.
Most of the bets (54 percent) and money (92 percent) are on Hill.
The betting pick is for Hill to beat Prochazka via knockout.
UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Odds and Predictions – Kevin Holland Vs. Reinier de Ridder
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: (L-R) Opponents Kevin Holland and Reinier de Ridder of The … [+]
Kevin Holland (26-12-0-1) was 12-3 when he earned his shot at a UFC contract on a Dana White’s Contender Series card in June 2018. Despite getting a win, UFC CEO Dana White did not offer Holland a contract.
However, Holland got the chance to fight for the UFC in August 2018 when Thiago Santos needed a short-notice opponent. Holland has been one of the more active UFC competitors since losing that contest by decision, fighting at middleweight and welterweight.
Holland followed the loss to Santos with an 8-1 run, a stretch that included five victories between May 2020 and December 2020. His last win of that run was a “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockout of ex-Strikeforce champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.
Holland’s career has been up-and-down since the highlight-reel win over Souza. He has a 5-7-0-1 record since then, never winning, or losing, more than two fights in a row.
Holland is 1-2 in his past three outings with a decision loss to Michael Page, a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk and most recently a corner stoppage TKO loss to Roman Dolidze.
Reinier de Ridder (18-2) signed with the UFC in September 2024. At the time, De Ridder was on a 1-2 run. A former two-division champion with ONE, De Ridder lost his middleweight and light heavyweight titles to Anatoly Malykhin in 2022 and 2024 by knockout. De Ridder had won those belts with wins over Aung La N Sang
De Ridder was coming off a TKO win over Magomedmurad Khasaev on a UAE Warriors card in July 2024 when he joined the UFC. De Ridder, an experienced grappler, made his UFC debut on a Fight Night card in November 2024, picking up a submission win over Gerald Meerschaert.
De Ridder has 12 wins via submission, four by knockout and two via decision. His two losses have both come via knockout.
The opening odds for this matchup saw Holland as the -145 favorite over the +120 De Ridder. Today, the fight is a pick ‘em with Holland at -105 and De Ridder at -115. Holland has the majority of the bets (63 percent) in his favor. Slightly more money has also come in on Holland (51 percent.)
The betting pick is for Holland to win via knockout.
UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Odds and Predictions –Jailton Almeida Vs. Serghei Spivac
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Jailton Almeida of Brazil poses on the scale during the UFC … [+]
This heavyweight fight landed on the main card with the removal of Dariush vs. Moicano. Almeida (21-3) opened as a -300 betting favorite over the +260 Spivac (17-4), who came in at +260. Today, Almeida is -450 over Spivac at +340.
Spivac has most of the bets in his favor (61 percent), while most of the money is on Almeida (52 percent).
The betting pick is for Almeida to pick up a submission win.
*Odds and info via DraftKings
UFC 311 Fight Card: Prop Bets to Consider
Islam Makhachev to beat Renato Moicano inside the distance: Odds not listed
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov to go the distance: -235
Merab Dvalishvili to get more than 2.5 takedowns: -125
Umar Nurmagomedov to land more significant strikes than Merab Dvalishvili: -180
Jamahal Hill vs. Jiri Prochazka to end via knockout: -275
Jamahal Hill to knockout Jiri Prochazka in Round 1: +450
Jamahal Hill to land more significant strikes than Jiri Prochazka: -160
Kevin Holland to land more significant strikes than Reinier De Ridder: -225
Reinier De Ridder under three takedowns against Kevin Holland: -130
Jailton Almeida lands more takedowns than Serghei Spivac: -600
Jailton Almeida over two takedowns vs. Serghei Spivac: +120
*Odds via BetOnline
UFC 311 Fight Card Date
Saturday, January 18, 2025
UFC 311 Fight Card Location
Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California
UFC 311 Fight Card Time And How To Watch And Stream
Early prelims: 6:00 p.m. ET – ESPN+
Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET – ESPNews
PPV Card: 10 p.m. ET – ESPN+ PPV
The UFC 311 fight card is the first pay-per-view event on the 2025 UFC schedule. Stay tuned for more coverage from UFC 311, as well as results, reactions, recaps on fight night.
